Dolg in ’strašljiv’ je seznam nalog, ki ga v septembrsko-oktobrski številki Foreign Affairs prihodnjemu ameriškemu predsedniku ‘polaga na srce’ Richard Holbrooke, dolgoletni diplomat, marsikomu znan predvsem kot ‘oče’ daytonske’ mirovne pogodbe za BiH. Prihodnji predsednik bo, piše Holbrooke, moral spremeniti vrsto domačih in zunanjih stališč oziroma politik, od ekonomske in z njo povezane okoljske do varnostne in zunanje v ožjem pomenu. Demokrat Holbrooke za spremembe v smeri, ki jo sam ocenjuje kot pravo, ker bo ZDA ‘povrnila slavo in moč’, seveda vidi več zagotovil v doslej slišanem od Baracka Obame.
To restore the United States to its proper world leadership role, two areas of weakness must be repaired: the domestic economy and the United States’ reputation in the world. Although the economy is usually treated as a domestic issue, reviving it is as important to the nation’s long-term security as is keeping U.S. military strength unchallengeable. This will require more than a cyclical upturn; to repair the economy in the long term, a new national policy on energy and climate change will be essential. And restoring respect for American values and leadership is essential — not because it is nice to be popular but because respect is a precondition for legitimate leadership and enduring influence.
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History is not immutable. But there is one pattern that comes very close to being a law of history: in the long run, the rise and fall of great nations is driven primarily by their economic strength. Rome, imperial China, Venice, France, the Netherlands, Portugal, the United Kingdom — all had their day, and their international decline followed inexorably from their economic decline.
Starting in the late nineteenth century, nothing was as important to the emergence of the United States as its spectacular economic growth. That growth was fueled, literally, by cheap domestic oil. The United States always overcame its periodic economic downturns, even the Great Depression. It is therefore reasonable for Americans, who are optimistic by nature, to assume that the nation’s current economic difficulties are just another temporary cyclical setback. But a new factor has emerged, unlike any the United States has previously faced. With the price of oil quadruple what it was four years ago, Americans are witnessing — or, more to the point, contributing to — the greatest transfer of wealth from one set of nations to another in history. Politicians and the press understandably focus attention on the domestic pressures caused by the high price of oil — the “pain at the pump.” But the huge long-term geostrategic implications of this wealth transfer, so far virtually neglected, also require the next president’s attention.
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The United States is not a helpless giant tossed on the seas of history. It is still the most powerful nation on earth, and within certain limits, it can still shape its own destiny and play the leading role in a multipolar world. It can still take the helm in addressing the world’s most pressing problems (as President Bush did effectively on only one issue, AIDS). There are many issues waiting for inspired and, yes, noble U.S. leadership, backed up by enlightened U.S. generosity that is also in the United States’ own interest. The United States is still great. It deserves leadership worthy of its people, leadership that will restore the nation’s pride and sense of purpose. That task must begin at home, but the world will be watching and waiting.
